If you've spent any time in Bitcoin circles, you've probably heard the word "halving" dropped with a certain reverence. Long-time Bitcoiners mark them on their calendars. Newcomers wonder what the fuss is about. The answer is surprisingly simple — and once you understand it, you'll never look at Bitcoin's price history the same way again.
What actually happens in a halving?
To understand the halving, you first need to understand how new Bitcoin comes into existence. Bitcoin doesn't have a central bank or a government mint. New coins are created as a reward for the people (and organisations) who run the computers that process and verify transactions. These people are called miners.
Every ten minutes or so, a new batch of transactions gets bundled into a "block" and added to the blockchain. The miner who successfully processes that block receives a fixed reward in newly created Bitcoin. When Bitcoin launched in 2009, that reward was 50 BTC per block.
The halving is exactly what it sounds like: every 210,000 blocks (roughly four years), that reward is cut in half. It's written into Bitcoin's code and cannot be changed.
is the average time between Bitcoin blocks. At that pace, 210,000 blocks takes approximately four years — which is how long each halving era lasts before the block reward is cut in half again.
Supply and demand — in slow motion
Here's why it matters. Every business student learns the basics of supply and demand: when supply decreases and demand stays the same (or grows), price tends to rise. The halving is a pre-programmed, perfectly predictable supply reduction — and it happens on a schedule everyone can see in advance.
"The halving is unlike anything else in financial markets. It's a scheduled supply shock that every participant can see coming — years in advance."
Compare this to gold. Gold miners respond to price signals — when gold is expensive, they dig more. When it's cheap, they slow down. The supply of gold is elastic. Bitcoin's supply schedule is completely inelastic: the code doesn't care what the price is. The halvings happen regardless.
The four halvings so far
First halving — November 2012
Block reward dropped from 50 to 25 BTC. Bitcoin's price was around $12 at the time. Within a year it had reached over $1,000. Correlation is not causation — but it was noticed.
Second halving — July 2016
Reward dropped to 12.5 BTC. Price was around $650. The bull run that followed peaked near $20,000 in late 2017 — the moment Bitcoin entered mainstream consciousness.
Third halving — May 2020
Reward dropped to 6.25 BTC. Price was around $8,500. Within 18 months it reached nearly $69,000 — a new all-time high that drew institutional investors in for the first time.
Fourth halving — April 2024
Reward dropped to 3.125 BTC. The most watched halving in history, coinciding with the approval of Bitcoin ETFs in the US. Bitcoin reached new highs in the months that followed.
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results — and anyone who tells you otherwise is selling something. But the pattern has been consistent enough that the halving cycle is taken seriously by analysts and investors worldwide.
What does the halving mean for miners?
For Bitcoin miners, each halving is a significant business event. Overnight, their revenue from block rewards is cut in half. Miners who operate efficiently — with cheap electricity and modern equipment — survive and thrive. Less efficient miners may have to shut down or sell their Bitcoin holdings to cover costs.
This shakeout tends to make the network more resilient over time. Only the most efficient, committed miners continue, which contributes to the long-term security of the network.
The long game: what happens when rewards reach zero?
The last Bitcoin will be mined around the year 2140. After that, miners will no longer receive block rewards — but they will still earn transaction fees paid by users. The idea is that as Bitcoin becomes more widely used, transaction fees will be sufficient to incentivise miners to keep the network running.
Whether that plays out as planned is one of the most debated questions in Bitcoin. But with over 100 years until then, it's a problem future generations will have far more information to work with than we do today.
Should I buy Bitcoin before a halving?
This is the question everyone wants answered, and it's the one we're least able to help with — because Bitcoin Bendigo is an educational group, not a financial advice service. What we can say is this: the halving is a genuine, verifiable supply event that has no equivalent in traditional finance. Understanding it is part of understanding Bitcoin.
Whether and how to act on that understanding is a personal decision that depends on your circumstances, your risk tolerance, and your time horizon. The best starting point, as always, is education — which is exactly what we're here for.
Come and dig into this further.
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